The boss of inflation

 

There is no shortage of internet articles and bloviating rhetoric from left-sided economists and politicians about how the tariffs proposed by President Trump will be inflationary and hit the pocketbooks of Americans.

One notable economist and former U.S. Treasury Secretary, Larry Summers, slammed President Trump’s tariffs as a self-inflicted wound on the US economy and warns they will fuel inflation within months.

This inflationary concern is also echoed by Mark Zandi, the chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, who recently shared that President Trump’s tariff plan would raise inflation and cost U.S. jobs.

A recent internet news article by USA TODAY (February 16, 2025) - “Why Trump’s plan for sweeping tariffs could ‘shock” inflation back into gear” - warned that President Donald Trump’s plan to hit imports from foreign countries with sweeping reciprocal tariffs could nearly double U.S. inflation if fully imposed, according to a recent study, intensifying a recent resurgence in consumer price increases.

Not all economists agree with this Peter Crying Wolf bleak inflationary message.  For example, Kevin Hassett, an economic adviser for President Trump recently said that long-held beliefs by nearly every economist that tariffs will raise prices are “just false.”

Who is right and who is wrong?  Each economist obviously has statistics to prove their point. Do we resolve these differences of opinion by channeling Mark Twain who once said, “There are three kinds of lies:  lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

Or does this add further support to a popular expression of yesteryear that economists are paid liars?

In America, inflation is typically measured by several economic indices with the most popular being, perhaps, the Consumer Price Index. 

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. Indexes are available for the U.S. and various geographic areas. Average price data for select utility, automotive fuel, and food items are also available.

From January 2024 to January 2025, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 3.0 percent, after rising 2.9 percent over the 12 months ending December 2024.

One of the drawbacks of the CPI, which measures the cost of a hypothetical basket of goods and services, is that it is static, the items of goods and services in that hypothetical basket remain constant.  It fails to consider what is known as substitution bias.  Substitution bias occurs when prices for goods and services change relative to one another. For example, the price of beef goes up greater than the cost of chicken.

Failure to consider substitution bias in the calculation of inflation via the CPI is that it results in this inflationary measure to overstate the true rise in the cost of living because it does not consider that people can substitute away from goods whose prices rise disproportionately.

Substitution bias is the power of American consumers doing what they do best, shopping for the best price for the goods and services they need and can afford.  It is an example of skipping the beef and buying the chicken for dinner.

Let’s also consider a less well-known force that can be described as the skip bias.  If the cost of food goes up by, say, ten percent, skip, or eat, ten percent less food and you have cancelled the inflationary cost of food.  What a great way to jumpstart the mission of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., the new U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services, of “Make America Healthy Again.”

President Trump’s tariff proposals will not be an inflationary nightmare for smart American consumers who have a keen sense of substitution bias in their shopping for goods and services. These smart American consumers will always be the boss of inflation.

Pax Domini sit semper vobiscum

70th birthday 100 burpees workout

 

Pierini Fitness recently and quietly crossed a line in the sand new decade of life with his 70^th birthday and entered new and uncharted life territory as a septuagenarian; he is #FITAT70 and blessed.

 

Continuing with an annual tradition started on his 65^th birthday, when he turned age 65, the 70^th birthday celebration included a 100 burpees workout at a local park.  While currently not at the top of his burpees game, he completed the 100 burpees with hands extended overhead clapping jumps in the time of 12:29. Here’s video proof of his effort:

 

Visit Pierini Fitness often to read his latest perspective about living and dying, gracefully aging and trying to live a good and honest life.  He’ll also continue sharing the details of his journey chasing upper-percentile and age-adjusted cardiovascular conditioning and strength endurance.  Finally, he’ll occasionally share some financial and political perspectives and wisdom. 

 

Until we meet next time, I’m Pierini Fitness #FITAT70 and blessed, and glad I was able to complete my 70^th birthday 100 burpees workout.

 

Pax Domini sit semper vobiscum

Will soon be revealed and shared

Wow, how time flies when you’re spending a lot of time doing nothing activities as a retired guy and blogging isn’t one of them.  It’s been 344 days since my last blogflection on March 11, 2024.  I should be ashamed of myself and am, somewhat, given that Pierini Fitness has been in cyberspace existence almost seventeen years since August 28, 2008.

So, what have I been doing?  Glad you asked.

 

I continue with my fitness pursuits in my gracefully aging journey.  I have swapped blogging time for video-making time and have added a lot of content to my Pierini Fitness YouTube Channel.  If I wasn’t so lazy, I’d take those videos and leverage them here with some middle-aged man fitness training wisdom. 

 

But in my lethargic blogging absence, I’ve slowly come to the end of my middle-age manhood.  Years ago, I “announced” that once a person becomes age 70, they’re an old man.  My days of middle-aged manhood are slowly coming to an end.  The next time you read a new blogflection here, it will be penned by and old man named Pierini Fitness.

 

So, it’s time to make some changes with this time-tested blog. The banner currently reads as follows:

 

“Founded on August 28, 2008, Pierini Fitness is a middle-aged man's reflections about living and dying, gracefully aging, and trying my best to live a good and honest life. There's good middle-aged man diet, fitness and health stuff here too. Enjoy your visit here and savor the knowledge and wisdom. Tell a middle-aged man or woman friend to stop by for a visit. Pax Domini sit semper vobiscum.”

 

It will soon change to read as follows:

 

“Founded on August 28, 2008, Pierini Fitness is now an old man who continues sharing his reflections about living and dying, gracefully aging, and trying my best to live a good and honest life.  Prior to turning age 70, he shared his reflections from a middle-aged man’s perspective.  Pierini Fitness has added content to now include occasionally financial and political perspectives.  Enjoy your visit here and savor his knowledge and wisdom.  Tell an older man or woman friend to stop by for a visit.  Pax Domini sit semper vobiscum.”

 

The section titled WHO IS PIERINI FITNESS? currently reads as follows:

 

“I'm a 69-year young middle-aged man fitness dude. As founder and chief executive blogger of Pierini Fitness, I'm the ambassador of middle-aged men around the world, advocating their interests and expressing their views of the way life was, the way life is and the way life should be. I have my own thoughts and opinions about this and that, and they're not dependent upon whether or not you believe them. I express them periodically - and sometimes more - with a Pierini Fitness blogflection. I will personally and timely reply to all your comments and questions.”

 

It will soon change to read as follows:

 

“I’m a 70-years young older man fitness guy.  As founder and chief executive blogger of Pierini Fitness, I share my opinions and wisdom about the way life was, the way life is, and the way life should be.  While most of my content since 2008 has focused on reflections about living and dying, gracefully aging and trying to live a good and honest life, I now occasionally share my financial and political thoughts.  I will personally and timely reply to all your comments and questions.”

 

Again, I apologize for my unexcused prolonged absence but stay tuned because my old man opinions and wisdom will soon be revealed and shared.

 

Pax Domini sit semper vobiscum

New burpees workout fitness apparel

I just completed another Pierini Fitness custom designed fitness t-shirt, and the merchandise is on its way, I can hardly wait to try one on.

Some time ago, I decided that I would no longer buy fitness clothes sporting a company's logo.  I would no longer be a walking billboard for Nike or Under Armour.  I'll acknowledge that my running shoes do bear the Asics logo, but there's not much I can do about that one; but that's it!

So, I started designing my own t-shirt logos and messages and this one is my third design creation.  I ordered five t-shirts, and they should arrive in a couple weeks.

I can hardly wait to wear my Spring 2024 new burpees workout fitness apparel.

Pax Domini sit semper vobiscum

I’m spending time in the OMAD zone

 

I have several years as a Time Restricted Eating (TRE) practitioner.  Some people refer to this as Intermittent Fasting (IF.) For me, it’s a lifestyle that’s a close cousin to my fitness training lifestyle.

I typically follow an 18-hours fasting window but am not rigid about it.  I prefer to end my eating before 5:00 pm and try, as much as possible, to train while fasted.

During Lent 2024, a time when Catholics are encouraged to ramp up their Prayer, Abstinence, Fasting and Almsgiving, I’ve chosen to practice one meal a day (OMAD) with an extended fasting window.  The photo is a screenshot of my extended fasting last week ending on Sunday.

While each day is different, I do think that exercising while fasting can affect fitness performance.  Yesterday, for example, I did a 100 burpees afternoon workout during the 23rd hour of a 24 hours fast and I do think my performance suffered during the 60 to 80 percent time period of that workout.  It’s hard to know with burpees because they’re always hard for me, even if fed.

For Lent 2024, I’m spending time in the OMAD zone.

Pax Domini sit semper vobiscum

69th birthday 100 burpees workout

Apologies for being quiet here at Pierini Fitness for way too long.  You'll see more action of what I've been up to by visiting my YouTube channel here:  Pierini Fitness at YouTube.  

You may view my latest fitness videos there by entering #FITAT69 in the search field.  

It's going to be a fun ride during the next year as I prepare to become, God willing, a 70-year young man.  Until then, I hope you enjoy my 69th birthday 100 burpees workout.

Pax Domini sit semper vobiscum

Powerfully weak “might” word

Pierini Fitness gives more weight to his own anecdotal experiences in chasing age-adjusted upper percentile fitness, health, and wellness, and for good reason. I seem to be, thus far, better served by it in my gracefully aging journey.  My experiences seem more believable than the “might laced” news articles gibberish sprinkled with the powerful words of “research suggests (insert your favorite content) might be beneficial for you.” Ditto for vitamins and other supplements’ advertising and testimonials.  I’m tired of this “might” word.

 

Spend some time surfing the internet for articles about new fitness, health, and wellness research studies.  Then spend some additional time going to the source and as a minimum reading the research abstract; generally, you’re able to do this.  Then, see if you can access the entire published research document and read it; often you can’t without paying for it, but sometimes you can.  If you’re able to access the published research document, attempt to read it but know that it may be difficult to comprehend without careful study because it’s written by highly educated researchers for other highly educated researchers in the same field. There’s generally not a meathead version for people like you and me.

 

I’ve read research abstracts and have gone further in some cases when able to do so and read parts of the published research document.  Invariably, the “might” word will appear along with a concluding statement that “additional research is needed.”  The latter tends to give more power to the “might” word and is a job security plea suggestion to fund additional research for the researcher.

 

Vitamins and supplements’ advertising and testimonials are not better, and they use the “might” word more generously to tantalize the fascination of their potential customers with their fountain of youth elixirs, muscle builders, libido enhancers and everything else under the sun that many people are lacking in their lives.

 

Therefore, Pierini Fitness has chosen to continue being a fitness, health, and wellness data geek in his pursuits.  He has kept a data-rich workout training journal for years, daily weighs himself and keeps a detailed food journal, and periodically captures other data about his fitness, health, and wellness.  He studies this data and turns it into useful information to serve as a map for his continuing fitness, health, and wellness travels.

 

My anecdotal experiences have served me well and I’ve never gotten lost in my journey.  They’ve been a better guide in my fitness, health, and wellness journey rather than reading news articles, published research studies, vitamins and supplements’ advertising and testimonials, all laced with the powerfully weak “might” word.

 

Pax Domini sit semper vobiscum

On an uneventful day 15 years ago today

Birthdays are fun and everyone and everything likes them, including Pierini Fitness.

 

Pierini Fitness was founded on August 28, 2008 and, while relatively inactive the past three years, has shared pearls of wisdom about living and dying, gracefully aging and trying my best to live a good and honest life.  I honestly believe, reflecting on the past 15 years, that I’ve done a decent job in this pursuit.

 

So, I shout out to myself while looking in my mind’s eye mirror about who I was then, who I am now and who I hope to be, God willing, for the precious remaining time on Planet Earth that’s mine to enjoy.

 

Happy Birthday Pierini Fitness! You were born on an uneventful day 15 years ago today.

 

Pax Domini sit semper vobiscum

Just man up

It’s a confusing time for many who are biological men but for some strange reason have doubts and now publicly identify as a woman. Who invented this gender confusion stuff? 

Several years ago, Pierini Fitness wrote about one such confused man named Bruce Jenner: A confused middle-aged man 

 

A lot has happened since then and where it will end, who knows. 

 

Biological males competing as athletes against women just isn’t fair. And that’s just my first of many manly rants.

 

Now we have a biological man parading around and appearing on a beer can promotion as a woman. Beer company Anheuser-Busch recently celebrated a transgender activist’s confused identity of 365 Days of Girlhood by pasting his face on cans of Bud Light beer. Boy, is Anheuser-Busch paying a price for this marketing disaster, and rightfully so. 

 

There are countless other examples of this gender confusion crap taking place in America and around the world, but Pierini Fitness will spare you of the details because chances are, you already are aware of them.   

 

I remember a conversation I had almost ten years ago with my now deceased Dad.

He was disturbed about some of the stuff going on in the world at the time - it’s weirder now – and commented on how his grandfather (my great grandfather) would turn over in his grave if he saw the world as it was today. 

 

I can only imagine that my Dad would do the same – turn over in his grave – if he were to witness the gender confusion shenanigans going on today. 

 

Fortunately for us men, and I suppose unfortunately for other confused biological men who carry a big cross of being a man as created by God, we’re stuck with our manly selves and no amount of pretending or chemical and surgical doings can change that fact.

Men, dressed as women, don’t belong in women’s bathrooms, in public to scare the living daylights out of little children, or competing as women in women athletic competitions. 

I wish you gender-confused souls my very best. It's challenging at times being a man but you need to just man up.

Pax Domini sit semper vobiscum