Friday, September 25, 2015

No I won't

Those rascals are at it again with pre-season teasers suddenly appearing in various news articles of both the internet, print, radio and television media varieties.  

Be on the lookout for constant “Get Ready for Flu Season” reminders initiated by our friendly federal government and its partner, the vaccination industry.

Pierini Fitness has discussed this topic before; if you missed it here it is again:

According to the internet website WedMd, between 5 percent and 20 percent of the U.S. population will get the flu, on average, each year.

To entice us to run out and get our flu shot, we’re now being told by the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) how this year’s flu vaccine will be more effective than last year.

So how effective was last year’s flu vaccine?

CDC Director Tom Freiden recently shared in a news conference last week that it was only 13 percent effective.

Yup, you read it right – only 13 percent effective!

Notwithstanding this unimpressive 13 percent effectiveness, the CDC’s Frieden reminds those who are willing to listen how Vaccination is the single most important step people can take to protect themselves from influenza."   

So what’s the combined chance of catching the flu but not catching it thanks to getting a flu shot?  Someone correct me if I’m wrong as I attempt to solve this math problem.

My math tells me that would be the 5 to 20 percent chance of catching the flu (see above) multiplied by the 13 percent flu shot effectiveness (also see above).  This calculates to 0.65 percent on the low side to 2.6 percent on the high side.

Taking the average of this range calculates to a 1.625 percent chance.  Much better than your chances of winning the big lottery prize but still pretty low in the overall probability scheme of things.

So will I be getting a flu shot this upcoming flu season?  My answer is, no I won’t. 

Pax Domini sit semper vobiscum

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I am 67 years old. I never received a flu shot in my life. I do not intend to ever get one. I agree with you.